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Topics - OkieSpladle

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16
College / Oklahoma State Vs Penn State
« on: February 16, 2014, 08:37:34 AM »
I don't like the look of this one on any given day, but given the Cowboys weighed in and wrestled yesterday while Penn State didn't, this could be ugly.

125 - Mega dec Klimara - Eddie is good, Mega is better.
133 - Morrison dec Gulibon - Morrison is so solid this year.  This might test his weight control, but I think he will be fine.
141 - Retherford dec Collica - Collica needs to stay off bottom, but Smith has a history of making his guys go underneath top wrestlers in the regular season.  If he does it again, this could get ugly for the Cowboys.
149 - Beitz dec Kindig - I just don't have faith in Kindig against quality opposition.  He really needs to win this match, but I don't think he will.
157 - Dieringer dec Alton - This one makes me nervous considering Alex's issues with weight this year.  I think he hangs on to win, but this will be a big test.
165 - Taylor mdec Caldwell - We've seen this before. 
174 - Perry dec Brown - Obviously a tough match here, but Perry has gotten it done twice against Brown and he knows how to win these matches.  He has to be the pick.
184 - Ruth tfall Boyd/Rogers/Crutchmer- Shrug.
197 - McIntosh mdec Boyd/Rogers/Crutchmer - I'd like to see Crutchmer here as I think he can keep it to a decision, but it doesn't really matter.
HWT - Marsden dec Gingrich - I like Marsden's recent form.  He is starting to show some signs and I think he gets this one.

That would be 21 - 12 Penn State.  In order for this to be competitive, Kindig and Marsden must win, the Cowboys must hold serve at 133, 157, 174, and there need to be 1-2 big performances elsewhere.  Whether those big wins are upsets or just limiting bonus points, they could make this a fun dual.  Unfortunately, I've seen this story line before.  I think Penn State wins by double digits more often than the Cowboys split matches 5-5.

17
Off-Topic / Baseball Card Legends
« on: November 17, 2013, 02:35:13 AM »
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I am pleased to announce that today my very own Facebook game, Baseball Card Legends, is public!  The premise is to collect baseball cards from every era (currently available sets are 1925, 1955, 1985, and 2013), build a team and compete against others for the #1 spot in 4 on field divisions and the card collecting division.  As I've built this game myself, with artwork by a friend of mine, it is still a work in progress, but it has gotten to the point to be ready for public consumption.  Please check it out if you're interested and if you wouldn't mind liking the app that would really help me.  You can always hide the stories later if you like.  If you do play, let me know what you think.  One nice thing about being the sole developer is that I can respond to feedback fairly quickly if necessary.

http://www.facebook.com/BaseballCardLegends

18
High School & Lower / Daton Fix
« on: July 19, 2013, 03:56:14 PM »
Won Cadet Greco at 106, then moved up to 113 and won Freestyle to complete the triple crown!  I used to watch that young man as a mighty mite running all over the mats during breaks at our tournament (his Dad is an official).  Congrats Daton!

19
College / Adopting a D1 program
« on: April 02, 2013, 11:24:35 AM »
The news about BU got me thinking again.  I have grandiose ideas of how to save the entire sport, but my bank account doesn't support them.  Instead, I want to adopt a D1 program that isn't one of the traditional powers and might be struggling.  I want to make a donation directly to their wrestling program every year and write a letter to their administration letting them know what I'm doing, why, and how much wrestling has done for me.  So, who should this program be?  Utah Valley might not be a bad one being recently added they've at least shown some commitment to the program.  Who else should I consider?  Who is trying to do a lot without much in the way of resources?  Who could be saved from the same fate?  Who will join me in adopting a lesser program?

I'm sending a $1000 check to someone.  I just don't know who yet.

20
College / Proactive Leadership and the NCAA Tournament bid process
« on: April 02, 2013, 05:00:22 AM »
We know 2014 will be in OKC and that 2015 bids are already in.  However, looking forward, I believe wrestling leadership (left intentionally vague as I'm not really sure who could best do it, a coalition is likely necessary) needs to identify the host cities that could best expand and showcase our sport and work with them to get bids in for future NCAAs.  We all speculate on great places to have the tournament (and the not so great), but what is being done to make sure these places are aware of the event and are encouraged to bid?  Obviously, we cannot force a city to apply and some simply don't have the facilities, but if we want to see places in the west or places with growing wrestling populations get their shot, we need to ensure they have a chance.  These things don't just happen.  They are the result of large groups of people putting a lot of work into a process that, more often than not, comes to nothing.  I think having a group or coalition of groups that know the sport doing what they can to influence the process would be a great thing for the sport.  Maybe they are already doing it with places like Phoenix and Atlanta being in the hat for 2015, but if they aren't, they should be.

21
College / The NCAA is scoring the tournament wrong
« on: March 23, 2013, 04:22:13 PM »
They are giving a point for advancement in the pig-tail (or half for the consi pigtail), but not giving that advancement for those who have a bye and then win.  This has given Oklahoma State 0.5 point too many and Penn State 1.5 too many.  It probably won't matter, but it seems odd that it is being scored incorrectly.

I could be wrong, but every rule I've ever seen you either score no advancement in the pig tail or the winners after a bye in the pig tail round get double.  Anyone know for sure?

22
College / Penn State will win this year's NCAAs 40% of the time
« on: March 16, 2013, 01:08:15 PM »
First, a caveat.  This method does not account for bonus points so it may well be that Penn State is more likely to win it than stated.  However, bonus is too difficult to predict to safely incorporate it here.

Method: I initially tracked the performance of all wrestlers in the NCAA tournament since 2000.  I tracked how likely each seed and the unseeded wrestlers as a group were to AA and what their average placement was when they did get on the stand.  That data is as follows:

Seed AA %Avg Placement
194.6%2.08
290.0%2.56
387.7%3.87
483.1%4.21
575.4%4.70
663.1%4.66
754.6%5.32
841.5%5.87
939.2%5.86
1031.5%5.39
1127.7%6.03
1219.2%6.08
US4.4%6.69

I then compared the performance of each team's wrestlers based on what they would have been expected to do by their seed.  I totaled each team's performance each year and gave them a rating based on how many AAs they had compared to expectation and what the placement of those AAs was compared to expectation.

Based purely on this year's seeds I have:

TeamAAsAvg Place
Penn St5.453.35
Ok St5.533.84
Iowa5.283.86
Minn4.764.55
Oh St2.803.39

This puts Penn State in a dogfight with Oklahoma State with Iowa just behind and Minnesota with some ground to make-up.  Ohio State is far back and behind several other teams, but I included them for a reason I'll get to later.  This is all well and good, but we know that certain teams perform well at the NCAA tournaments and others tend to Poke Choke (I hate it, but its true).  This is where the historical performance data I mentioned above comes in.  When I apply the +/- rating for each of the past tournaments to the expectations for this year, I get a good picture of what we might expect from each team this year.  This method shows what most of us already assumed, that Penn State has the potential to outscore everyone else if they wrestle well regardless of other team's performance.  They have the top 2 potential scores and 3 of the top 4.  They also have the best minimum score.  Ranking the potential outcomes allows us to see how likely each potential performance would be to win a title based on how likely it would be for another team to perform better in the same tournament.  The results?

Penn State will win it 40.6% of the time.  Iowa will take it home 28%, Oklahoma State wins 20%, Minnesota wins 9% and Ohio State sneaks in and pulls off a miracle 2.4% of the time.  Ohio State is the only one outside the top 4 that has a potential score high enough to beat Penn State's minimum.  This is mainly due to their amazing performance in 2004 adding a huge +/- rating to their potential score.  Minnesota has a couple of very high +/- ratings as well so it surprises me a little they come in so low, but they are seeded decisively lower than the other 3. 

Overall, this data analysis tells me this tournament really is there for the taking for the big 4 and a historic performance could put several other team's in the hunt.  Oklahoma State's remarkably awful performance compared to seed in the past haunts them in this method, but it is something most of us factor in anyway.  Rather than co-favorites, they are relegated to 3rd most likely.

23
College / 174 Seed Pick 'Em
« on: March 11, 2013, 03:52:08 AM »
I'm up for it!  Anyone who can guess what the committee will do with this weight after the weekend must be clairvoyant!  Anyone want to take a shot at it?

24
College / 2004 Ohio State
« on: March 03, 2013, 12:21:17 PM »
As far as I can tell Ohio State qualified 5 in 2004. 

#11 Jeff Ratliff placed 8th at 149
#10 John Clark placed 5th at 165
Unseeded Blake Kaplan placed 5th at 184
Unseeded JD Bergman placed 3rd at 197
#1 Tommy Rowlands placed 1st at HWT

They finished tied for 3rd with 5 guys!  This is one of the most (if not the most) surprising team performances since 2000 and I'm not sure I heard much about it at the time (to be fair, I was still in college and not following D1 as closely).  Tell me more about this team.  Did anyone see this coming?  What happened to the other 5 guys, just not good enough or did they lose a couple that were expected to qualify?

25
College / NCAAs - Worst Case Scenarios
« on: February 25, 2013, 03:59:15 AM »
Some on the ostate board are having a meltdown after Saturday night so I got to thinking about what could happen at NCAAs.  Obviously, worst case scenario for any team is 0 AAs (HELLO MISSOURI!), but from a realistic point of view Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Iowa, and Penn State aren't getting shut out.  So the question becomes, what is the worst, realistic finish for each team?

Oklahoma State:
AAs - Oliver, Caldwell, Perry, Z

I feel pretty safe that 4 AAs is the worst the Cowboys will do.  Morrison, obviously, should AA, but he is still enough of a wildcard that I'm not sure I can bet on him.  Z could get tossed from the tournament, but otherwise these 4 are pretty safe bets.

Iowa:
AAs - McD, Ramos, DSJ, Evans

After this weekend I don't think any Hawkeye fans would bet much on Balweg making the podium and Telford is hovering around the danger zone.  McD for all his struggles still beats all but the top few.

Minnesota:
AAs - Ness, Storley, Steinhaus, Nelson

I almost put one or both of the Dardanes on the list, but they have taken enough losses to think they could miss out.  They could just as easily both AA, but this is worst case scenario after all.

Penn St:
AAs - Mega, D. Alton, Taylor, Ruth, Q

Brown could still prove himself a lock at Big 10s, but so far he is on the bubble.  A. Alton is a big question mark and Conaway still has more bad losses then good wins.  There exists the possibility that Penn State leaves Des Moines with 5 AAs (though possibly 3-4 finalists in that bunch).  That would throw the door wide open.

What do you think?  Who else should we consider?  Anyone not on the list that should be?  Anyone on the list that shouldn't be? 

26
College / Light fixture falls on wrestler
« on: January 21, 2013, 12:16:38 PM »
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tG90SPGyGy4#!

Apparently he escaped only needing stitches, but this is some crazy stuff.  It happens just over a minute in to the video.


I know this is a HS match, but I wanted people to see this.  If it needs to be moved, I won't be offended.

27
College / Oklahoma State's chances of winning the title this year...
« on: January 02, 2013, 03:29:46 PM »
are 0%. 

28
College / The Scuffle so far...
« on: January 02, 2013, 04:36:34 AM »
I'm making a new topic because I refuse to participate in the ridiculousness in the other threads.  I've been following via Track so I haven't actually seen the matches live.

125 - Soto and Thorn going down surprised me.  Megaludis and Garrett seems like a finals match.  Can the freshman make it happen?  From an Oklahoma State prespective, I still don't understand pulling Klimara's RS.

133 - Not much to comment on here just yet.  Dardanes hasn't exactly been lighting people up, but he hasn't been close to losing either.  Morrison continues to beat the guys he should and now he has a chance to avenge an earlier loss to McCormick.  If he does, he will likely get a chance to avenge his other loss in the finals.  He could really help his seed with a big day today.

141 - When Feikert gets the #3 seed you know the weight is weak.  I was impressed to see Ugi squeak out a 2-1 win and a 5-3 win in OT.  Those are the kind of matches that guys who aren't terribly well versed in folkstyle seem to lose.  I hope he gets by Mecate so we can see him against Nevinger or Dardanes.

149 - The upset of the tournament so far may have been English holding Oliver to a 12-6 decision.  Ness seems to be wrestling himself into shape based on the results which could be an interesting proposition against VonOhlen.  If neither gets pinned, I'd expect both to have double digits on the board in that one.  Ness\Oliver is the final I want to see, but considering the circumstances I'm not sure it would be close.

157 - Vollrath is doing a nice job filling in for Alton.  Dieringer needs to just keep winning.  Dallas Bailey pinning Zilverberg was just another in the long line of results that leave you shaking your head (good and bad).

165 - Count me among the people who initially thought Caldwell would be close to Dake\Taylor, but feel much less confident today.  I'm hoping for a pleasant surprise, but another Dake\Taylor is a nice consolation prize.

174 - Brown and Storley will be fun and the winner likely against Perry will be as well.  I'll admit I had to go look up Todd Porter's results after he beat Fausey (for the 2nd time this year) and held Perry to an 8-3 decision.  After doing so I'm more dissapointed in Fausey than impressed by Porter.

184 - Chionuma misses a chance to declare himself a top-10 guy and is still missing a big win on the resume.  He really needs to come back through the wrestle-backs and pick someone off (Steinhaus will likely be the match-up).  Ruth continues to be just ridiculous.

197 - Phillip Wellington (I'm assuming he drops "the 3rd" when he is wrestling) took full advantage of an injury to Salopek by proceeding to knock off Brent "OkieSpladle really should have traded me when I was a top-5 guy and was worth something" Haynes.  Can he run all the way to the finals?  Schiller\Q is the headline, but the bottom semi has a good story going.

HWT - Nelson and Bradley have 1 fall and 5 decisions between them with a total of 22 points in those 5 decisions.  Z and Gwiz have 2 falls, 2 TFs and 2 Dec with a total of 17 points in the 2 decisions.  Everyone does what they have to do to win, but if you like to see an attractive, casual fan-friendly product on the mat, the choice in these two match-ups is clear.  I'm really hoping for a Z\Nelson re-match for my own selfish reasons, but Z\Gwiz might rival Ness\VonOhlen for point scoring potential.

Day 2 should be fun!

29
2012 Fantasy Wrestling League / Trade
« on: December 27, 2012, 11:46:13 AM »
ACGuns sends Zac Thomusseit (HWT, Pitt, #7) to OkieSpladle for Josh Asper (174, Maryland, #5).

30
2012 Fantasy Wrestling League / Week 8 - 12/21-12/27
« on: December 20, 2012, 04:30:32 AM »
I know almost no one is wrestling, but I have one match:

165 - Warner, Old Dominion
12/21 - American

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