I consider my history degree worthless, and will be worthless when I go back for my masters and potentially a Phd as well. I just like History
History is widely considered one of the most worthless degrees. Not many jobs in the field and most of them in HS are taken by wrestling coaches, lol.
Read "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" by Paul Kennedy sometime, if you like history. Good stuff!
I'm toying with the idea of developing an actual formula to predict the collapse of Empires. I've found you need just the right mix of external pressures coupled with internal strife borne from social inequality. I really think you can predict it. We haven't really had anything resembling an Empire since the Eastern Bloc though
I'd probably include the USA as an "empire", economically if not geographically. And it's in decline, no doubt about it. I'd agree with you that it's somewhat predictable (the fall of empires). The Western Roman Empire was running on fumes for decades before it went tits up. The Ottoman Empire had a decline that lasted a couple centuries. How long will our decline last?
The thing is a predictable system of decline can't really be measured for an economic empire since they are novelties in the world. An economic empire would follow the flow of the markets and doesn't suffer from the internal turmoil of an Imperialistic Empire. Case in point, how many serious bids/threats of secession from the United States have been made in the past century outside of small Tribal governments? The United States conquered the native tribes so effectively they are a nonentity in modern geopolitics, America's short lived classical Imperialism didn't really bring about the downfall of the nation because it was quickly supplanted by America's neo-Imperialism (see Japan, Iraq, Panama, etc for examples). Like economic Imperialism, Neo-Imperialism which relies more on behind the scenes influence doesn't have any historical data in order to properly measure it.
I can't even say for certain whether or not we are in a decline since we have no idea what a decline would look like
You could start by looking at industrialization numbers for those nations. Prior to World War 1 the USA was producing as much steel as the next 4 largest producers combined, as much iron as the next 3. Today China produces 9 times as much steel as the USA, which only ranks 3rd in the world in steel production (barely above India). Of course steel/iron aren't the primary measures of military/economic power today as they were decades ago, but it plays a very big part in national defense from a productivity standpoint.
I would argue that economic superpowers DID exist prior to the 20th century and, as such, their rise and fall charted/analyzed. The Dutch were an economic superpower (barely, but they were filthy rich) for a long time, although a military midget. On the other hand the Dutch never really FELL...they seem to be thriving the same as always.
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