Author Topic: Best Case Scenario - Nationals  (Read 2901 times)

Offline Cruocified

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Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« on: January 25, 2017, 02:04:14 PM »
Snowed in with the kids, so I needed something to distract me.

This is not a prediction; this is what I see as a realistic best case scenario.  Again, this is NOT a prediction.  These are just my thoughts on how each of these guys could do at Nationals if all the right things happen.  I’d be interested to see what fans of other top teams have to say about their (realistic) best case scenarios.  OSU, tOSU, PSU, Minnesota (lol, just kidding Minnesota), what you got?

125: Champion with bonus along the way.  What could hold him back?  Letting guys get into his head.  Gilman is the most dominant wrestler at 125 and it isn’t close, but he’s a bit unstable at times.  He could meet Suriano for the 3rd time in the finals, and if Gilman isn’t able to open up and pull away a little at the Big 10s against Suriano, then I have a bad feeling about Nationals.

133: Champion.  The obvious thing that could hold him back?  The shoulder injury.  He can beat anybody at 133 as long as he keeps attacking.

141: Seventh.  He proved he can hang with some of the best at this weight.. he just can’t beat them.  I don’t see him beating any of the top 5-6 guys at any point this season, but after that I see a lot of potential upsets.  He has to actually take some shots though.  He had no offense at all last time out against Gulibon; he simply out-hustled him for the first two periods which kept him ahead.  Hustle isn’t good enough.

149: Runner-up.  Could he beat Retherford?  Sure he could, and I think if he is going to, it’ll be at Big 10s.  For that to happen, he has to wrestle with the same pace he wrestled Retherford from here on out.  He needs to make that his natural style, instead of his stepping up to the challenge style.  His positioning is incredible which makes him extremely difficult to score on.  He can’t wrestle with that mindset, as he just proved he can retain that while still constantly moving the feet and attacking.  Keep it up and he might steal a win at Big 10s, but then I think Retherford will be the one to rise to a new level at Nationals and beat Sorensen by 5-6.  Would be great to see both guys just destroy the field on their way to the finals… especially if Sorensen wins at Big 10s.

157: Runner-up.  He’s what now, 3-1 against the top 10?  He will NOT be winning against Nolf, at least not this season, but Kemerer gets better each week.. really fun to watch his progression.  I think Kemerer will finish the season with 3 losses, all to Nolf.

165: R12.  Gunther doesn’t have the arsenal to AA, but I can see him going as deep as R12 as a best case scenario.  I don’t know why, but he seems to be able to wear out his opponent as the match goes on, which is why I think he can get this deep, but he doesn’t have the offense to take advantage of that against the top guys.

174: Fifth.  Can’t beat BoJo, Epperly, or Valencia, but he has at least a chance against the rest of the field.  I really don’t think he will ever beat Hall again either, whom he may run into again at Big 10s.  It’s almost cliché at this point with Meyer, but it depends on which Meyer shows up.  He can beat Realbuto, he can beat Crutchmer, he can beat Ramos, Priesch, etc. etc.  Just do it Meyer.

184: Third.  Dean and Nickal, then everybody else.  DEEP weight, and depending on where the chips fall, we could see Brooks DNP, but I’m here for best case scenario, not worst.  Outside of the top 2, there is nobody that Brooks can’t or hasn’t beaten.  Brooks has looked VERY impressive this year outside that weird spladle and the first match with Jackson.  I wouldn’t bet against him against anybody, except for Dean and Nickal of course.

197: 2-2.  197 is a 1-horse race…  Cox is just on another level, especially if he feels like being on another level.  Then we have Pfarr, who is good enough to be a champion if it wasn’t for Cox.  After that this weight is WAY down this year.  Unfortunately, we have our backup 184 wrestling 197, and while he is tough as nails and won’t give in to anybody, he just isn’t big enough to make a run.

285: Hope to qualify and win a match.  B1G is top heavy but not deep at HWT, so I’m not sure how many auto qualifiers we get.  5-6?  He isn’t beating Snyder, Medbury, Kroells, or Nevills for sure.  Maybe an upset over Blacks or Jensen will get him qualified at Big 10s.  I saw Stoll topping out at 5th, but getting 2-3 falls along the way at nationals.  Huge loss for Iowa.

On the other hand, the following may not be THE WORST case scenario, but it is another scenario that could just as likely play out…

125: 3rd: Loses his head and pins himself in the semis.
133: Re-injures shoulder and can’t compete.
141: 0-2
149: 3rd: Wrestles not to lose, gets beat in the quarters or semis, then wrestles back.
157: 5th: Makes some freshman mistakes that cost him a couple matches that he was in control of.
165: 0-2
174: 2-2
184: R12
197: DNQ
285: DNQ

So Iowa could have 4 finalists, 2 champions, 7 All Americans, and 10 qualifiers who all score points, or it could have 0 finalists, 3 All Americans, 7 qualifiers, and 5 point scorers.  Both not likely but possible.
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Offline buck

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2017, 06:49:01 PM »
It's also likely that you're living in the past.
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Offline Jerry Callo

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2017, 06:54:42 PM »
Snowed in with the kids, so I needed something to distract me.

This is not a prediction; this is what I see as a realistic best case scenario.  Again, this is NOT a prediction.  These are just my thoughts on how each of these guys could do at Nationals if all the right things happen.  I’d be interested to see what fans of other top teams have to say about their (realistic) best case scenarios.  OSU, tOSU, PSU, Minnesota (lol, just kidding Minnesota), what you got?

125: Champion with bonus along the way.  What could hold him back?  Letting guys get into his head.  Gilman is the most dominant wrestler at 125 and it isn’t close, but he’s a bit unstable at times.  He could meet Suriano for the 3rd time in the finals, and if Gilman isn’t able to open up and pull away a little at the Big 10s against Suriano, then I have a bad feeling about Nationals.

133: Champion.  The obvious thing that could hold him back?  The shoulder injury.  He can beat anybody at 133 as long as he keeps attacking.

141: Seventh.  He proved he can hang with some of the best at this weight.. he just can’t beat them.  I don’t see him beating any of the top 5-6 guys at any point this season, but after that I see a lot of potential upsets.  He has to actually take some shots though.  He had no offense at all last time out against Gulibon; he simply out-hustled him for the first two periods which kept him ahead.  Hustle isn’t good enough.

149: Runner-up.  Could he beat Retherford?  Sure he could, and I think if he is going to, it’ll be at Big 10s.  For that to happen, he has to wrestle with the same pace he wrestled Retherford from here on out.  He needs to make that his natural style, instead of his stepping up to the challenge style.  His positioning is incredible which makes him extremely difficult to score on.  He can’t wrestle with that mindset, as he just proved he can retain that while still constantly moving the feet and attacking.  Keep it up and he might steal a win at Big 10s, but then I think Retherford will be the one to rise to a new level at Nationals and beat Sorensen by 5-6.  Would be great to see both guys just destroy the field on their way to the finals… especially if Sorensen wins at Big 10s.

157: Runner-up.  He’s what now, 3-1 against the top 10?  He will NOT be winning against Nolf, at least not this season, but Kemerer gets better each week.. really fun to watch his progression.  I think Kemerer will finish the season with 3 losses, all to Nolf.

165: R12.  Gunther doesn’t have the arsenal to AA, but I can see him going as deep as R12 as a best case scenario.  I don’t know why, but he seems to be able to wear out his opponent as the match goes on, which is why I think he can get this deep, but he doesn’t have the offense to take advantage of that against the top guys.

174: Fifth.  Can’t beat BoJo, Epperly, or Valencia, but he has at least a chance against the rest of the field.  I really don’t think he will ever beat Hall again either, whom he may run into again at Big 10s.  It’s almost cliché at this point with Meyer, but it depends on which Meyer shows up.  He can beat Realbuto, he can beat Crutchmer, he can beat Ramos, Priesch, etc. etc.  Just do it Meyer.

184: Third.  Dean and Nickal, then everybody else.  DEEP weight, and depending on where the chips fall, we could see Brooks DNP, but I’m here for best case scenario, not worst.  Outside of the top 2, there is nobody that Brooks can’t or hasn’t beaten.  Brooks has looked VERY impressive this year outside that weird spladle and the first match with Jackson.  I wouldn’t bet against him against anybody, except for Dean and Nickal of course.

197: 2-2.  197 is a 1-horse race…  Cox is just on another level, especially if he feels like being on another level.  Then we have Pfarr, who is good enough to be a champion if it wasn’t for Cox.  After that this weight is WAY down this year.  Unfortunately, we have our backup 184 wrestling 197, and while he is tough as nails and won’t give in to anybody, he just isn’t big enough to make a run.

285: Hope to qualify and win a match.  B1G is top heavy but not deep at HWT, so I’m not sure how many auto qualifiers we get.  5-6?  He isn’t beating Snyder, Medbury, Kroells, or Nevills for sure.  Maybe an upset over Blacks or Jensen will get him qualified at Big 10s.  I saw Stoll topping out at 5th, but getting 2-3 falls along the way at nationals.  Huge loss for Iowa.

On the other hand, the following may not be THE WORST case scenario, but it is another scenario that could just as likely play out…

125: 3rd: Loses his head and pins himself in the semis.
133: Re-injures shoulder and can’t compete.
141: 0-2
149: 3rd: Wrestles not to lose, gets beat in the quarters or semis, then wrestles back.
157: 5th: Makes some freshman mistakes that cost him a couple matches that he was in control of.
165: 0-2
174: 2-2
184: R12
197: DNQ
285: DNQ

So Iowa could have 4 finalists, 2 champions, 7 All Americans, and 10 qualifiers who all score points, or it could have 0 finalists, 3 All Americans, 7 qualifiers, and 5 point scorers.  Both not likely but possible.

I think your assessment is pretty spot on with the exception of 133.  Shoulder or no shoulder - I think Clark will have a big barrier in his way - and that is NaTo. 

The fun part is we may get some resolution of this issue in about 48 hours!

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Offline goStanford18

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2017, 08:23:29 PM »
Best case scenarios for Stanford...

125: R12. Hopefully, Townsell is placed into the 3rd or 4th seed's side of the bracket (must avoid Gilman and Dance for as long as possible) and must not hit a Lizak, Cruz, or Mueller type of guy who will eat him alive on top until the quarters. Good news is that this bracket has fallen apart in at least one side the last couple of years.

133: 7th. Really hard to see Schram beating Tomasello, Brock, Clark, Gross, Richards, or Montoya.

141: 1st. If he can finish his shots cleanly against Heil, he'll be just fine.

149: DNQ

157: 8th. I think this is one of the two weakest weights in the country. Fox has the talent to find himself on the podium, but he'll need to be firing on all cylinders and catch a guy or two on their backs in the champs bracket.

165: 6th. If he's placed away from IMar, Jordan, and Massa, he could sneak his way into the semis by pinning Rogers, Lewis, Valencia, or Joseph via headlock...

174: 8th. This weight is deceptively deep.

184: DNQ

197: R12

285: 7th. Butler has been a top 12 guy for a couple of years now, and it would not be surprising to see him higher on the podium.

It would be a program record to qualify more than 6 guys. I think Jason, Jamill, and Ray will qualify these 8 guys this year. Extremely unlikely to get 6 All-Americans, but I really do think the potential is there.
50~ team points probably breaks into the top 10 this year, and this squad can potentially do it.

Offline Jerry Callo

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2017, 08:29:48 PM »
At 174 - are you predicting Jim Wilson to place 8th?  I was wondering where he disappeared to!
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Offline goStanford18

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2017, 08:45:48 PM »
Yes, he's been hurt since the Scuffle. Should be back by Pac 12s

Offline Jerry Callo

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2017, 09:52:32 AM »
I knew he was hurt but had heard nothing about his return.  Hope you are right! 

I have heard there is a rule that if someone has not wrestled in 30 days prior to the final NCAA rankings coming out they are not eligible to considered as an Automatic Qualifier.  If that is true, would it make sense that wrestlers like Wilson (Stanford) and Parker (Lehigh) will try and return for the last dual meet in February as close to the conference tourney as possible?  I guess this would apply to other injured wrestlers as well, no? 

Is this close to being an accurate explanation of the rules on Automatic Qualifiers? 

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Offline OkieSpladle

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2017, 11:37:09 AM »
If they haven't wrestled in 30 days, they wouldn't be eligible to be ranked, but if they had enough matches to qualify for the RPI (17 at their post season weight class against D1 opponents), they could still earn a bid for the conference through RPI and winning percentage.  Of course, even if they don't earn a bid, they could still automatically qualify by finishing high enough at the conference tournament.

Parker has 14 D1 matches and Wilson has 15 so, if they didn't wrestle between now and the conference tournaments, they would be ineligible for RPI and the coaches ranking making it impossible for them to earn a bid.

Offline Jerry Callo

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Re: Best Case Scenario - Nationals
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2017, 12:34:46 PM »
That helps - thanks!
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