What will the Arizona State lineup be for 2023?

[BroncoSaurus]

I've seen it mentioned elsewhere numerous times - particularly by a certain ASU fan - that there MAY be a shuffling of the lineup for ASU for next season.  By that this ASU fan has repeatedly suggested that Richard Figueroa will be the starter at 125 lbs - rather than Brandon Courtney.   And as a result most of the rest of the lower & middle weight classes are likely to move up a weight class.   I have been reluctant to agree with this person and this notion that Figueroa will be the ASU starter at 125 lbs but I just did a dual meet comparison on WrestleStat between ASU and Penn State with this lineup and that comparison shows Arizona State beating Penn State by a score of 21 to 15.   Whether that means anything or is meaningless I don't know.  I just found it interesting.

Just curious how others might see the likely lineup for Arizona State for 2023.  Which of the following projected lineups would you advocate?

STATUS QUO VERSION

125 - # 4 ranked Brandon Courtney (SR)
133 - # 5 ranked Michael McGee (SR)
141 - # 31 ranked Jesse Vasquez (SO)
149 - # 8 ranked Kyle Parco (SO)
157 - # 5 ranked Jacori Teemer (JR)
165 - # 69 ranked Kendall Norfleet (RS FR)
174 - # 53 ranked Cael Valencia (RS FR)
184 - # 14 ranked Anthony Montalvo (JR)
197 - # 12 ranked Kordell Norfleet (SR)
285 - # 4 ranked Cohlton Schultz (SO)

BUMP-UP VERSION
125 - # 98 ranked Richard Figueroa (RS FR)
133 - # 4 ranked (at 125) Brandon Courtney (SR)
141 - # 5 ranked (at 133) Michael McGee (SR)
149 - # 31 ranked (at 141) Jesse Vasquez (SO)
157 - # 8 ranked (at 149) Kyle Parco (SO)
165 - # 5 ranked (at 157) Jacori Teemer (JR)
174 - # 53 ranked Cael Valencia (RS FR)
184 - # 14 ranked Antony Montalvo (JR)
197 - # 12 ranked Kordell Norfleet (SR)
285 - # 4 ranked Cohlton Schultz (SO)

If you do a dual meet comparison with the status quo version - between Arizona State and Penn State- it projects Penn State to win that dual match-up by a score of 23 to 12.  Yet if you use the other version is shows Arizona State beating Penn State 21-15 (as mentioned previously).

[RYou]

So you are adding a #98 and dropping a # 60, plus bumping 5 wrestlers up 8 lbs or more and the computer thinks that team will beat PSU?   Not gonna happen.

[goStanford18]

They have a good problem for sure. I think it all rides on how good Figs (and Vasquez) will be. I don't think all of all their 125-157 starters from last year will be as effective up a weight.


For instance, I think Teemer is a high AA threat at 157. I think he's a R12 or low AA type of guy at 165. I could be wrong though... high level guys like Realbuto, Kemerer, and Hidlay made the jump to 174 from 157 and didn't lose a step. Could be argued that they looked even better on full feed. So maybe it can work for ASU to bump up.

[RYou]

There are tons that improved bumping up a weight class, but there are many more that just lost competitiveness because they were undersized.  Generally, if you are not putting on 8 lbs of muscle mass to bump you're not going to be as competitive.

[BroncoSaurus]

So you are adding a #98 and dropping a # 60, plus bumping 5 wrestlers up 8 lbs or more and the computer thinks that team will beat PSU?   Not gonna happen.

Don't shoot the messenger.  I didn't make these projections.  Simply reporting what the outcomes were as projected by the WrestleStat dual comparison feature.

[BroncoSaurus]

They have a good problem for sure. I think it all rides on how good Figs (and Vasquez) will be. I don't think all of all their 125-157 starters from last year will be as effective up a weight.


For instance, I think Teemer is a high AA threat at 157. I think he's a R12 or low AA type of guy at 165. I could be wrong though... high level guys like Realbuto, Kemerer, and Hidlay made the jump to 174 from 157 and didn't lose a step. Could be argued that they looked even better on full feed. So maybe it can work for ASU to bump up.

I agree regarding Figueroa.  He wasn't overly impressive this weekend at the Under 20 Freestyle tournament.  He placed 4th in a field of only 12 competitors.   What it is going to depend on is a couple of things IMO.  # 1. Is Brandon Courtney going to remain at 125 lbs or move up to 133 lbs for his final season?  # 2.  IF Courtney stays at 125 lbs then it will be decided in a wrestle-off between Courtney and Figueroa. 

This is how the WrestleStat dual comparison feature projected these two duals between Arizona State and Penn State:

STATUS QUO LINEUP
125 - Courtney over Howard 9-6 - DUAL SCORE 3-0 ASU
133 - Roman Bravo-Young over McGee - 7-5 - DUAL SCORE - 3-3
141 - Beau Bartlett over Jesse Vasquez - 8-7 - DUAL SCORE Penn State 6 - ASU - 3
149 - Kyle Parco over Shayne Van Ness - 6-4 - DUAL SCORE 6-6
157 - Jacori Teemer over Barraclough - 8-4 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 9 - Penn State 6
165 - Alex Facundo over Kendall Norfleet - by TF (20-4) - DUAL SCORE Penn State 11 - Arizona State 9
174 - Carter Starocci over Cael Valencia by TF (18-3) - DUAL SCORE Penn State 16 - Arizona State 9
184 - Aaron Brooks over Anthony Montalvo by MD (12-3) - DUAL SCORE Penn State 20 - Arizona State 9
197 - Max Dean over Kordell Norfleet 7-5 - DUAL SCORE Penn State 23 - Arizona State 9
285 - Cohlton Schultz over Greg Kerkvliet 6-4 - DUAL SCORE Penn  State 23 - Arizona State 12

BUMP-UP LINEUP
125 - Figueroa over Howard by FALL - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 6 - Penn State 0
133 - Roman Bravo-Young over Brandon Courtney 7-4 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 6 - Penn State 3
141 - Michael McGee over Beau Bartlett 8-4 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 9 - Penn State 3
149 - Jesse Vasquez over Shayne Van Ness 14-9 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 12 - Penn State 3
157 - Kyle Parco over Terrell Barraclough 6-3 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 15 - Penn State 3
165 - Jacori Teemer over Alex Facundo 7-4 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 18 - Penn State 3
174 - Carter Starocci over Cael Valencia by TF (18-3) - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 18 - Penn State 8
184 - Aaron Brooks over Anthony Montalvo by MD (12-3) - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 18 - Penn State 12
197 - Max Dean over Kordell Norfleet 7-5 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 18 - Penn State 15
285 - Cohlton Schultz over Greg Kerkvliet 6-4 - DUAL SCORE Arizona State 21 - Penn State 15