Why Okie Spladles team Sucks

[LoSt]

Wait, so all you've got on me is that I have too many major conference guys?  Weak, even for you.  :lol:

I have a little time to kill so I will try to break this down for you into baby steps.  

Lets start by taking a look at a few different teams and their schedules.


Oklahoma State: ~18 Duals (1) - B12
RToC

ISU: ~14 Duals - B12
Midlands  

Missouri: ~13 Duals (1) - B12
Midlands

Nebraska: ~18 Duals - B12
CKLV

Minnesota: ~15 Duals (1) - B10
KB Open
Scuffle

Wisconsin: ~17 Duals (2) - B10
CKLV
Midlands

These schools are the schools from which the majority of your starters come from.  Ignore the number in parenthesis.  The number of duals was calculated by adding up the individual duals a team would get and then giving somewhere between 2-5 for Virginia/National Duals, depending on how many matches I thought a school would get.  So some of these numbers might end up being off by one or two duals.

Lets take a look at a few of my schools...

Edinboro:  ~15 Duals (2) - EWL
EMU Open
Brockport Open
RToC
Scuffle

Navy:  ~7 Duals (0) - EIWA
EMU Open
Navy Classic
CKLV
RToC
Scuffle

Bucknewll: ~20 Duals
Navy Classic
CKLV
Midlands

Kent State: ~16 Duals (3) - MAC
Brockport
Bodybar
Scuffle

V-Tech: ~20 Duals (4) - ACC
Navy Classic
CKLV

Wyoming: ~15 Duals (2) - WWC
Body Bar
CKLV
RToC

Lets just make an arbritrary assumption that a Tourney is worth 5 matches.  Obviously this will change depending on the size of the tourney, the place your guy takes, whether he shows up to wrestle at it, etc...  This also wont take into account the fact that some of the big tournies get a 1st/2nd bonus.  We'll ignore all that for simplicities sake, and stick with 5.

So if we compare Bucknell to Okie State, we come away with  3x5=15 (3 tournies) + 20= 35  VS  18+5(1 Tourney)= 23
35 vs 23.  Yes, you read that right. Bucknell will get about 30% more matches then Okie State.

Lets also compare the teams that each will face in duals.

Okie State:
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Minnesota
UC Davis
Cal Poly
Iowa
Iowa State
Northern Colorado
Wyoming
Northern Iowa
Missouri
Nebraska
Binghamton
Oklahoma

Bucknell:
Virginia Tech
Virginia
North Carolina
Army
Iowa
Rutgers
Drexel
East Stroudsburg
Princeton
Brown
Liberty
Old Dominion
Columbia
Lock Haven
George Mason
American

(Bolded teams are top 20)

Hmmm... I wonder who is going to have more difficult matches this season.     :roll:

So now we apply that principle across the board to the 12 of your 15 starters that wrestle for B10/B12 schools, and we see clearly that you will never win a points race against anyone who drafted a decent team.  I could probably draft a team of guys exclusively outside the top 15 and score more points then your team will during the reg season.

Lets now look at our other avenue of qualification:  Conferences
A lot of you probably dont know about this, since you didn't bother to read the rules very carefully, but outside of the top four teams during the reg season we will also take the 2 highest scoring teams during conference week (excluding the four that are already in).  This means you could be in last for the entire year, score a ton of points in conferences, and still make it to the NCAAs anyway.  The most crucial aspect of conference scoring is the large bonuses that 1st/2nd place winners get, which provide a large boost to your score.

Luckily for OKie, I've upped the bonuses for B10/B12 conference finalists this year, because B10/B12 guys were so incredibly bad for qualifying that I felt they needed a boost.  Let us see how Okies team shakes out.  I will use Earls conference rankings here and add my comments below

125: Notte #1
Very weak weight in the b12.  However it remains to be seen how Notte handles the cut, and I also would not count out Andrew Long

125: Tony Mustari #3
Mustari is a servicible Journeyman who can keep it close to the better guys but will never come close to beating them.  I'm more interested to see if he beats #4 Terrance Young then I am in his matches with the two top dogs (Kjar+Martinez)

133:  Matt Fisk #2
Fisk is not bad, but he is certainly not on the level of Mike Grey.  A favorite to take 2nd, but I would not count out #3 Marble from upsetting Fisk

141: Mike Thorn #3 (due to roster changes)
You benefitted a TON here from roster shuffles.  Molinaro to 149, Kennedy+ Russell RSINg.  Thorn cannot beat Humphrey so it comes down to whether he gets seeded on the right half and can take out Iowas 141.  Obviously as a Minny fan I am hoping he can, but I have my doubts.

141: Seth Ciasulli #1
Ironically for a guy who has an absolutely brutal dual schedule, Ciasulli is actually a considerable favorite to win his conference.  The biggest question mark at this point is how Kyle Dake will turn out.  But even if Dake is the next coming of Nickerson, its hard not to see Ciasulli being the #2 guy.

149: Kyle Ruschell #2
Obviously ranked ahead of Palmer based on his win in the 3rd place match last year.  However, given Palmers 3-1 record against Ruschell I see this as a definite #3.  It also remains to be seen how Molinaro will look at 149, and if Mason will do big things this year.  A finals appearnce for Ruschell is unlikely

157: Jake Deitchler #6
#6 is definitely not giving Jake enough credit...  He sure as hell is better then Jones and Salazaar.  However he is still an unknown at this point.  I could see him being good enough to give Cyler a run for his Money in the finals, but I could also seem him taking his lumps in his first year of college folkstyle, and finishing behind Kinser/Nemec/Cyler.

165: Andrew Howe #2
Simply put, this weight is a clusterF*ck.  In the preseason I would favor Howe to make the finals against Schlatter, but until we get into the B10 season we likely wont really know how this weight shakes out.

165: Colt Sponseller #5
Obviously a guy who is capable of making the finals, but again, 165 is absurd in the b10.  Very unlikely sponseller would get a conference start unless he emerges as a top 3 guy this year.

174: Jay Borschell #1
Really the ONLY guy on your team that I would consider a dominating favorite to win his Conference.  174 in the B10 is tougher then a lot are giving it credit for, but outside of Blanton it is hard not to see J-Bo walking through B10s.

174: McNeil N/A
Benefiel will be starting 2nd semester, so obviously Mcneil cannot score any conference points

184: Phil Keddy #2
Obviously a very clear cut #2 and finalist lock.  Beatty has proven he can beat Pucillo, but given the match history you would have to consider Pucillo a definite favorite.

184: Clayton Foster #2
You should get a 2nd here.  Foster is a talented guy and the move down to 184 should help him, but he is 0-3 against Askren.

197: Pat Bond #3
197 is Weak in the b10 this year, but Bond is frankly not that good... He was having a very lackluster career and then suffered from a very serious injury that sidelined him for most of last year.  Obviously we'll have to see how things shape up, but I think its a lot more likely Bond falls to #4/5 then it is that he becomes a finalist contender.

HVY: Tucker Lane #4
Lane has the potential to beat the Big 3, but obviously this weight is a clusterf*ck.  It would be possible for him to qualify for NCAAs by placing 4th and score 0 points during conferences.


By way of comparision, here is the team that won the WC in our league last year...

125: Tnick - 1st
133: Conroy - 1st
141: T-Shirts - 4th
149: Brown - 1st
157: Leen - 1st
165: Dywer - 2nd
174: Brenner - 1st
184: Jones - 1st
197: Strawn - 3rd?
HVY: Fendone - 2nd
Flex: Cathell - 1st

I would very much like to see where your team will come up with 7 conference champs.  I'll also note that Tnick, Leen, and Cathell were 3 of the top 5 scorers that week with 30+ points each, which is about 2x what a B12 champ earns.  This team was the 2nd wildcard, and I believe only beat the next highest guy by about 3 points.

[OkieSpladle]

Not a bad analysis.  I have 3 guys rated #1 in the conference (and I look for Notte to have a BIG year, but yes I am concerned about the cut) and 7 more at #2 or #3 and you don't think there is a possibility that by the end of the year I could crown 7 champs?  I will admit that I didn't factor in schedules enough, though part of that is the really arbitrary tournament selection as to what counts and what doesn't (my own fault for not paying enough attention to the rules, but pretty sketchy if you ask me).  I probably won't win it this year, but I don't think I see a team that will probably win it (just a few really good teams and plenty of teams that could do well with a break or two in their favor).  Its a long season.

[LoSt]

Not a bad analysis.  I have 3 guys rated #1 in the conference (and I look for Notte to have a BIG year, but yes I am concerned about the cut) and 7 more at #2 or #3 and you don't think there is a possibility that by the end of the year I could crown 7 champs?  I will admit that I didn't factor in schedules enough, though part of that is the really arbitrary tournament selection as to what counts and what doesn't (my own fault for not paying enough attention to the rules, but pretty sketchy if you ask me).  I probably won't win it this year, but I don't think I see a team that will probably win it (just a few really good teams and plenty of teams that could do well with a break or two in their favor).  Its a long season.

Hey, as long as you admit I'm right  

Fantasy is a learning process like anything else.  I have been doing this for three years now so I know what to look for, most in this league probably do not.  My first year I was 9 points away from making it to 2nd (back then only the top 4 regular season moved to conferences, and the top 2 conferences moved to NCAAs), but my team was certainly nothing special.

I am completely open to changing our tournament selection next year, as that is one of the things that needs to be fine tuned from year to year based on what teams are scheduled to be at what tournies.  I had input in creating this list but I was not the ultimate decided on what tourneys went in or out.  I just copy pasted the rules verbatim from my other league, which is run by someone else.

In hindsight I wish I could drop the BU open and the NC State open, and there might be some tournies worth adding as well.  But like I said, I cannot possibly change the scoring system now that the draft is over, since a lot of people (or at least the smart ones) based their decisions off of what tournies would count.

[nywrestler4life]

Lost, if you really have time to kill, you can do a "why NYwrestler's team is great" thread, so people can learn from my triumphs.

[LoSt]

Not a bad analysis.  I have 3 guys rated #1 in the conference (and I look for Notte to have a BIG year, but yes I am concerned about the cut) and 7 more at #2 or #3 and you don't think there is a possibility that by the end of the year I could crown 7 champs?

Statistically, the odds of a top guy getting upset and not making the finals are much higher then a guy who is not seeded to make the finals making it.  (This might not make sense intuitively but it will if you run the math)  No, I do not think it is at all realistic that you could crown 7 champs with the team you have in front of me.  Were everything to turn out absolutely PERFECT for you, I could see 6.  But that is assuming Keddy+Foster both pull upsets and that Howe wins.

[LoSt]

Lost, if you really have time to kill, you can do a "why NYwrestler's team is great" thread, so people can learn from my triumphs.

Your team is quite good and has few holes.  However you are short on horsepower, Humphrey is the only guy on your team I can see wining a title, and Brester is the only guy I see as 2nd place material.

Most of your aa contenders are 5th-8th kind of guys.

[LoSt]

Here is my team just for comparision purposes


125: Garnett #1
Will probably bonus his way through

125: Martinez #2
(I expect him to beat Kjar for #1)

133: Ness #2
One of the three guys that could win it this year (unless Graff is better then I think)

141: Washington #1
Returning champ, AA upside, Hashimoto is the only guy who could give him a run for his moeny

149: Borshoff #1
Kyler might challenge him for the #1 spot

149: Greenwald #6
I think he makes it to #4, but he is on my team for points, not playoffs

157: Saddoris #2
Possible he beats O'Connor for #1, but I would favor JP

157: Sanderson #1
Weak B10 weight, remains to be seen how Nemec and Deitchler will look though.

165: Rendos #1
Kerber is a bit of an unknown but I dont think he can take Rendos

165: Chaires #2
sleeper pick for me, he's split 2 matches with reigning champ Epperly, and I like him to win ACCs this year.

174: Lewnes #1
Will obliterate this weight class in EIWAs

174: Manuel #4
4th is probably right on the money for Manuel, he is here because he fills every single hole where Lewnes is off, and also he is a returning R12.

184: Kilgore #1
Bennet is probably the only guy from the Mac that will keep Kilgore from bonus points

197: Beatty #2
I think Beatty is a clear favorite over Brandvold and the #1 guy in the b10, but rankings are rankings.

HVY: Ben Berhow #2
I like him to make the finals this year, and given Ereksons injury a B10 title is not out of the question.   (I am a minny homer though)

[Rockhard]

Can you also do a "why LoSt's team is quite gay and will not finish first this season" analysis?