Wait, so all you've got on me is that I have too many major conference guys? Weak, even for you. :lol:
I have a little time to kill so I will try to break this down for you into baby steps.
Lets start by taking a look at a few different teams and their schedules.
Oklahoma State: ~18 Duals (1) - B12
RToC
ISU: ~14 Duals - B12
Midlands
Missouri: ~13 Duals (1) - B12
Midlands
Nebraska: ~18 Duals - B12
CKLV
Minnesota: ~15 Duals (1) - B10
KB Open
Scuffle
Wisconsin: ~17 Duals (2) - B10
CKLV
Midlands
These schools are the schools from which the majority of your starters come from. Ignore the number in parenthesis. The number of duals was calculated by adding up the individual duals a team would get and then giving somewhere between 2-5 for Virginia/National Duals, depending on how many matches I thought a school would get. So some of these numbers might end up being off by one or two duals.
Lets take a look at a few of my schools...
Edinboro: ~15 Duals (2) - EWL
EMU Open
Brockport Open
RToC
Scuffle
Navy: ~7 Duals (0) - EIWA
EMU Open
Navy Classic
CKLV
RToC
Scuffle
Bucknewll: ~20 Duals
Navy Classic
CKLV
Midlands
Kent State: ~16 Duals (3) - MAC
Brockport
Bodybar
Scuffle
V-Tech: ~20 Duals (4) - ACC
Navy Classic
CKLV
Wyoming: ~15 Duals (2) - WWC
Body Bar
CKLV
RToC
Lets just make an arbritrary assumption that a Tourney is worth 5 matches. Obviously this will change depending on the size of the tourney, the place your guy takes, whether he shows up to wrestle at it, etc... This also wont take into account the fact that some of the big tournies get a 1st/2nd bonus. We'll ignore all that for simplicities sake, and stick with 5.
So if we compare Bucknell to Okie State, we come away with 3x5=15 (3 tournies) + 20= 35 VS 18+5(1 Tourney)= 23
35 vs 23. Yes, you read that right. Bucknell will get about 30% more matches then Okie State.
Lets also compare the teams that each will face in duals.
Okie State:Arizona State
OklahomaMinnesotaUC Davis
Cal Poly
Iowa
Iowa StateNorthern Colorado
Wyoming
Northern Iowa
Missouri
NebraskaBinghamton
Oklahoma
Bucknell:Virginia Tech
VirginiaNorth Carolina
Army
Iowa Rutgers
Drexel
East Stroudsburg
Princeton
Brown
Liberty
Old Dominion
Columbia
Lock Haven
George Mason
American(Bolded teams are top 20)
Hmmm... I wonder who is going to have more difficult matches this season. :roll:
So now we apply that principle across the board to the
12 of your 15 starters that wrestle for B10/B12 schools, and we see clearly that you will never win a points race against anyone who drafted a decent team. I could probably draft a team of guys exclusively outside the top 15 and score more points then your team will during the reg season.
Lets now look at our other avenue of qualification: Conferences
A lot of you probably dont know about this, since you didn't bother to read the rules very carefully, but outside of the top four teams during the reg season we will also take the 2 highest scoring teams during conference week (excluding the four that are already in). This means you could be in last for the entire year, score a ton of points in conferences, and still make it to the NCAAs anyway. The most crucial aspect of conference scoring is the large bonuses that 1st/2nd place winners get, which provide a large boost to your score.
Luckily for OKie, I've upped the bonuses for B10/B12 conference finalists this year, because B10/B12 guys were so incredibly bad for qualifying that I felt they needed a boost. Let us see how Okies team shakes out. I will use Earls conference rankings here and add my comments below
125: Notte #1
Very weak weight in the b12. However it remains to be seen how Notte handles the cut, and I also would not count out Andrew Long
125: Tony Mustari #3
Mustari is a servicible Journeyman who can keep it close to the better guys but will never come close to beating them. I'm more interested to see if he beats #4 Terrance Young then I am in his matches with the two top dogs (Kjar+Martinez)
133: Matt Fisk #2
Fisk is not bad, but he is certainly not on the level of Mike Grey. A favorite to take 2nd, but I would not count out #3 Marble from upsetting Fisk
141: Mike Thorn #3 (due to roster changes)
You benefitted a TON here from roster shuffles. Molinaro to 149, Kennedy+ Russell RSINg. Thorn cannot beat Humphrey so it comes down to whether he gets seeded on the right half and can take out Iowas 141. Obviously as a Minny fan I am hoping he can, but I have my doubts.
141: Seth Ciasulli #1
Ironically for a guy who has an absolutely brutal dual schedule, Ciasulli is actually a considerable favorite to win his conference. The biggest question mark at this point is how Kyle Dake will turn out. But even if Dake is the next coming of Nickerson, its hard not to see Ciasulli being the #2 guy.
149: Kyle Ruschell #2
Obviously ranked ahead of Palmer based on his win in the 3rd place match last year. However, given Palmers 3-1 record against Ruschell I see this as a definite #3. It also remains to be seen how Molinaro will look at 149, and if Mason will do big things this year. A finals appearnce for Ruschell is unlikely
157: Jake Deitchler #6
#6 is definitely not giving Jake enough credit... He sure as hell is better then Jones and Salazaar. However he is still an unknown at this point. I could see him being good enough to give Cyler a run for his Money in the finals, but I could also seem him taking his lumps in his first year of college folkstyle, and finishing behind Kinser/Nemec/Cyler.
165: Andrew Howe #2
Simply put, this weight is a clusterF*ck. In the preseason I would favor Howe to make the finals against Schlatter, but until we get into the B10 season we likely wont really know how this weight shakes out.
165: Colt Sponseller #5
Obviously a guy who is capable of making the finals, but again, 165 is absurd in the b10. Very unlikely sponseller would get a conference start unless he emerges as a top 3 guy this year.
174: Jay Borschell #1
Really the ONLY guy on your team that I would consider a dominating favorite to win his Conference. 174 in the B10 is tougher then a lot are giving it credit for, but outside of Blanton it is hard not to see J-Bo walking through B10s.
174: McNeil N/A
Benefiel will be starting 2nd semester, so obviously Mcneil cannot score any conference points
184: Phil Keddy #2
Obviously a very clear cut #2 and finalist lock. Beatty has proven he can beat Pucillo, but given the match history you would have to consider Pucillo a definite favorite.
184: Clayton Foster #2
You should get a 2nd here. Foster is a talented guy and the move down to 184 should help him, but he is 0-3 against Askren.
197: Pat Bond #3
197 is Weak in the b10 this year, but Bond is frankly not that good... He was having a very lackluster career and then suffered from a very serious injury that sidelined him for most of last year. Obviously we'll have to see how things shape up, but I think its a lot more likely Bond falls to #4/5 then it is that he becomes a finalist contender.
HVY: Tucker Lane #4
Lane has the potential to beat the Big 3, but obviously this weight is a clusterf*ck. It would be possible for him to qualify for NCAAs by placing 4th and score 0 points during conferences.
By way of comparision, here is the team that won the WC in our league last year...
125: Tnick - 1st
133: Conroy - 1st
141: T-Shirts - 4th
149: Brown - 1st
157: Leen - 1st
165: Dywer - 2nd
174: Brenner - 1st
184: Jones - 1st
197: Strawn - 3rd?
HVY: Fendone - 2nd
Flex: Cathell - 1st
I would very much like to see where your team will come up with 7 conference champs. I'll also note that Tnick, Leen, and Cathell were 3 of the top 5 scorers that week with 30+ points each, which is about 2x what a B12 champ earns. This team was the
2nd wildcard, and I believe only beat the next highest guy by about 3 points.