Poll

What % chance a plane will be blown up in 2010?

1. 100%
1 (7.7%)
2. 80-99%
0 (0%)
3. 60-79%
0 (0%)
4. 40-59%
4 (30.8%)
5. 20-39%
2 (15.4%)
6. 1-19%
5 (38.5%)
7. 0%
1 (7.7%)

Total Members Voted: 12

Voting closed: December 31, 2009, 12:48:31 PM

Author Topic: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010  (Read 1500 times)

Offline ViseGrip

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% chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« on: December 31, 2009, 12:48:31 PM »
What are the chances the terrorists will accomplish their goal of blowing up an commercial airliner in 2010?
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

StephanVonVesthell

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2009, 01:38:50 PM »

Offline royboy

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2009, 02:22:56 PM »
really...2 votes for 100%
i took 1-19%
"Really? Well please tell your father-in-law that he is a freaking idiot."

Offline AKIN

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2009, 02:40:52 PM »
I put 40-59%. It seems like more and more crazies pop up every day, so I guess it could happen. And you wonder if there are sleeper cells in the US right now waiting to try another mass execution.
Imagine the good that could be done, if people were less worried about their differences, and more worried about doing good for everyone.

Offline ocianain

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2009, 04:24:15 PM »
Quote from: "StephanVonVesthell"

Not valid as every flight is not targeted. A better set of odds would be percent successes of attempts.
The Seeking For One Thing Will Find Another - Irish Proverb

Offline Cougar1

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2009, 04:58:25 PM »
Good point ac. You also have to factor in changing tactics. Remember when they used to just hijack airplanes? Also there is still debate over American Airlines flight 191 as to whether it was caused by sabotage or a random mechanical failure as was reported.
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Offline ViseGrip

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2009, 07:45:09 PM »
The fact that they only need to get on a small amount of this chemical and then inject it with simple water tells me its gonna happen... sooner rather than later.
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

sgallan

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2009, 08:03:29 PM »
It would appear that flying is still really safe, and Americans are REALLY easy to terrorize.

Offline ViseGrip

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2009, 08:20:10 PM »
Quote from: "sgallan"
It would appear that flying is still really safe, and Americans are REALLY easy to terrorize.
Let me ask you too then.... just what is to stop what almost happened on Christmas from being successful next time? Seriously. Do we start strip searching mens underwear?

It seems to me if we learned one thing from 9/11 attack on the World Trade Towers is that these terrorists are not particularly deterred by failure now are they. Nor do they have a lack of imagination either now do they.
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

sgallan

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2009, 09:40:12 PM »
Let me ask you too then.... just what is to stop what almost happened on Christmas from being successful next time? Seriously. Do we start strip searching mens underwear?

Maybe it will..... but I am not going to sweat it. The odds say I am more likely to die from any one of a hundred more mundane things than I am getting blown up by a terrorist in an airplane. And it would also appear even the smart ones (the latest was clearly educated), with expert advice, have a hard time pulling it off. And even more obvious, the days where a person can get up and say "this is a hi-jack and I have a bomb so sit quietly" is long gone. Any flight will have at least ten, probably more, folks who will take that one down.

It seems to me if we learned one thing from 9/11 attack on the World Trade Towers is that these terrorists are not particularly deterred by failure now are they. Nor do they have a lack of imagination either now do they.

Indeed - but if we are "terrorized" because of every (in this case failed) attempt, then they have already won. There is a line between being vigilant, and being terrorized. My personal opinion is this country has crossed into the "being terrorized" side of the line.

Offline ViseGrip

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2010, 11:21:03 AM »
Quote from: "sgallan"
Let me ask you too then.... just what is to stop what almost happened on Christmas from being successful next time? Seriously. Do we start strip searching mens underwear?

Maybe it will..... but I am not going to sweat it. The odds say I am more likely to die from any one of a hundred more mundane things than I am getting blown up by a terrorist in an airplane. And it would also appear even the smart ones (the latest was clearly educated), with expert advice, have a hard time pulling it off. And even more obvious, the days where a person can get up and say "this is a hi-jack and I have a bomb so sit quietly" is long gone. Any flight will have at least ten, probably more, folks who will take that one down.

It seems to me if we learned one thing from 9/11 attack on the World Trade Towers is that these terrorists are not particularly deterred by failure now are they. Nor do they have a lack of imagination either now do they.

Indeed - but if we are "terrorized" because of every (in this case failed) attempt, then they have already won. There is a line between being vigilant, and being terrorized. My personal opinion is this country has crossed into the "being terrorized" side of the line.

Well yes, why even mention it? I mean if its not us personally thats going to be effected why does it even matter? Besides I'm sure the government has it all well under control.
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

sgallan

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2010, 12:39:47 PM »
Exactly.

Offline Jimmy the Gent

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Re: % chances the terrorists will blow up a plane in 2010
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2010, 04:28:45 PM »
Quote from: "ViseGrip"
The fact that they only need to get on a small amount of this chemical and then inject it with simple water tells me its gonna happen... sooner rather than later.

this is the post you edited, and lied about.

A couple days ago you posted you wouldn't be surprised if a plane got blown out of the sky next year and then said, "if not this year..." clearly meaning that their is still a possibility it could happen before the new year as there were still a couple days of opportunity left.

I always had a decent amount of respect for you VaG but now that I have caught you red-handed in the act of bald-faced lying, I don't respect you one bit.
"Jimmy, I understand your point and technically your logic is sound."  --Viratas