A Look at the Team Race in March after CKLV/Midlands/Scuffle

[goStanford18]

This year is looking to be one of the competitive seasons for the team title in recent memory. Many people believe Penn State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, and Ohio State are the forerunners to capture the title. Let's take a look at the guy at each weight class in the respective order stated above.

125:
Nico Megaludis--Eddie Kilmara--Thomas Gilman--Nathan Tomasello

In my objective opinion, this weight class is looking like a toss-up between Tomasello and Gilman. I think Kilmara is a tier below these three guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Megaludis comes out on top, and Joey Dance's performance is going to play a huge factor in the team race. Here's my pecking order for these 4:
1. Tomasello
2. Gilman
3. Megaludis
4. Kilmara

133:
Jordan Conaway--Gary Wayne Harding/Kaid Brock--Cory Clark--Johnni DiJulius

The severity of Brock's injury is still unknown. I don't think Oklahoma State can win the title with Harding as their starter. Pecking order:
1. Clark
2. Conaway/Brock (slide Conaway and DiJulius down if Brock is healthy)
3. DiJulius
4. Harding

141:
Jimmy Gulibon--Dean Heil--Brody Grothus--Micah Jordan

Penn State might not need Gulibon to score points if Nickal and Retherford continue their reign of terror. I believe Tom Brands said Grothus is ready to go. Pecking order:

1. Heil
2. Jordan
3. Grothus (I know he has yet to compete, but Gulibon has yet to look elite this season)
4. Gulibon

149:
Zain Retherford--Anthony Collica--Brandon Sorenson--Hunter Stieber

This weight class has yet to be settled since Retherford hasn't faced Sorenson or T-shirt. Hunter Stieber in top form is scary, and I think he is truly the key for Ohio State to win a team title. Pecking order:

1. Retherford
2. Sorenson
3. Stieber (full form)
4. Collica (bump him up if Stieber is no longer himself)

157:
Jason Nolf--Chance Marsteller/Joe Smith/Ryan Blees--Edwin Cooper--Jake Ryan

Everyone here is fighting for second place, but I don't think anyone stands a chance against Martinez. Nolf can prove me wrong in the dual, but I'm willing to bet Martinez will dominate him. Oklahoma State will have to pull Smith's redshirt if they want to win the title. Pecking order:

1. Nolf
2. Smith
3. Ryan
4. Cooper

165:
Too many guys to name for PSU--Alex Dieringer--Iowa scores a couple points at most here...maybe PSU can lend them a hand...perhaps they should have grabbed Blees or Marsteller---Bo Jordan

This is Dieringer's weight class to lose. The Jordans will be his biggest challenge. Pecking order:

1. Dieringer
2. Jordan
3. Whoever Cael decides to send in
4. Whoever steps in for Iowa

174:
Bo Nickal--Kyle Crutchmer/Chandler Rogers--Alex Meyer--Myles Martin
I think Rogers beat Crutchmer at the Scuffle and placed above him. I also think Crutchmer was coming off of an injury. I'm not 100% sure who will be the guy in March, but I'd bet on Crutchmer. Nickal was severely underrated after completely dominating Epperly and Hammond. I'm surprised people are surprised he came out on top--although I didn't think he would wipe the floor with Realbuto.  Myles Martin wrestled Nickal very close in their match at the NLO, and I'm excited to see him compete against Crutchmer and Meyer. Pecking order:

1. Nickal
2. Crutchmer
3. Meyer
4. Martin

184:
Matt McCutcheon--Nolan Boyd--Sammy Brooks--Kenny Courts
I really think this weight class is crucial. McCutcheon, Brooks, and Courts are all capable of beating one another and obtaining AA status. Pecking order:

1. Brooks
2. Courts
3. McCutcheon
4. Boyd

197:
Morgan McIntosh--Little Mardsen--Nathan Burak--Mark Martin

McIntosh is looking great so far this year. The graduations of Gadson and Schiller really helped, and so did Snyder's short-lived redshirt/bump up to 285. Pecking order:

1. McIntosh
2. Burak
3. Martin
4. Mardsen

285
Jan Johnson--Big Mardsen--Sam Stoll--Kyle Snyder

Stoll is looking like he can AA. Mardsen has to perform to AA. I think Snyder is a top 4 guy in this weight class. Pecking order:
1. Snyder
2. Mardsen
3. Stoll
4. Johnson

Objective AA Count:
PSU: 6 - 125, 133, 149, 157, 174, 197
OK State: 7 - 125, 133, 141, 157,165, 174, 285 (assuming Brock is healthy and Coach Smith pulls his son's redshirt)
Iowa: 4 - 125, 133, 149, 174
Ohio State 4 - 125, 141, 165, 285

I'm not sure if Iowa has enough depth to win the title. Oklahoma State and Ohio State have a lot of question marks due to pulling redshirts, injuries, and guys who aren't consistent but have AA potential. Penn State has an surefire power in bonus points. Objective pecking order:
1. PSU
2. OK State
3. Ohio State
4. Iowa

Ohio State has the highest upside/ceiling based on the performances of DiJulius, Stieber, Myles Martin, and Kenny Courts...all 4 guys are AA caliber wrestlers. Jake Ryan is also no slouch and could potentially AA. Ohio State homers are hoping for 9 AA's...(which isn't that far-fetched). PSU also has some upside based on how Gulibon performs. McCutcheon AAing is also very possible. Oklahoma State's upside is Collica getting onto the podium. Iowa's upside is Brody Grothus and the emergence of Sam Stoll. Brooks also needs to perform.

Pecking order based on each team's ceiling/upside:
1. Ohio State (9 AA's) no 197
2. PSU (8 AA's) no 165/285
3. OK State  (8 AA's) no 184/197
4. Iowa (8 AA's) no 157/165

What're your thoughts? Am I counting out the likes of Virginia Tech, Michigan, Mizzou, and Cornell too early?

[Gantry]

When all things are equal bonus points are the great equalizer - and PSU gets lots of bonus points from their horses.  Gotta make them the favorite but it's great to have 4 teams so close. 

[brycemus]

so you aren't counting Brooks or Burak in your AA total for Iowa? That's some interesting math leaving Nathan off. I can see maybe Brooks and Grothus since neither have stood on the podium and one has yet to wrestle a match at the weight.

It should read Iowa with 5.

[Brew]

Stanford, thanks for taking the time to put all of that down....I enjoyed reading it.

[OkieSpladle]

I believe the title is still Penn State's to lose, but they are a top heavy team which means they are very susceptible to injury or upsets.  You can win a title with 4 in the finals, 2 other AAs and a bunch of bonus, but if one or two of those finalists doesn't come through you're suddenly missing a lot of points.  The Cowboys could still put 3 in the finals and 8 on the stand, but I would bet the under on both of those numbers.  Ohio State is really intriguing, but may have even more questions than the Cowboys do if thats even possible.  I don't see Iowa getting there, but you never know.  Last year we saw an unseeded, a 13, 2 6s, an 8, and a 7 in the finals.  If one or two of those happens to be on any of these 4 teams the math changes quickly.  It is always more fun when many teams have a shot in March.  While we're still a ways away from that, it looks like we're in for a good one!

[buf87]

Can't include Grothus at 141 until he actually competes, I my opinion

[brycemus]

and what about Stieber then?

[Jerry Callo]

Both Clark and Brock had to default in their most recent  tourney appearances, right?  Any definitive word on either?

[brycemus]

Clark tweaked his knee and I'm guessing that when he woke up the next day it was stiff/sore enough to prevent further competition.  That's all the more I've heard firsthand, but the rumor mill is flying

[jammen]

141:
Jimmy Gulibon--Dean Heil--Brody Grothus--Micah Jordan

Penn State might not need Gulibon to score points if Nickal and Retherford continue their reign of terror. I believe Tom Brands said Grothus is ready to go. Pecking order:

1. Heil
2. Jordan
3. Grothus (I know he has yet to compete, but Gulibon has yet to look elite this season)
4. Gulibon

How come Grothus isn't #1?  All of his losses came at 149 which is a much tougher weight class than 141.  Also Grothus has beaten some of the top guys at 149.  Considering how weak the 141 weight class is it is an easy decision to rank Grothus #1 even if he's never wrestled a match at that weight.  (Wait a minute.  This isn't a Gulibon ranked #1 parody, is it?)

[buf87]

and what about Stieber then?

Same as Grothus.  We have know idea what to expect until we see how they adjust to injury or weight cut.

[brycemus]

directed as much to  the guy who started this thread and accidently miscounted his Hawkeye AAs. 

[goStanford18]

so you aren't counting Brooks or Burak in your AA total for Iowa? That's some interesting math leaving Nathan off. I can see maybe Brooks and Grothus since neither have stood on the podium and one has yet to wrestle a match at the weight.

It should read Iowa with 5.

You're correct. Somehow Burak slipped my mind, but he should definitely be getting onto the podium in March.

[SetonHallPirate]

I feel like a team that absolutely smashed the field at Cliff Keen should probably be in the discussion as well...

[brycemus]

he is my darkhorse for a title.  he needs a good bracket because frankly he'll never beat McIntosh.  but I think he can beat Cox (who has letdown matches) and I think he can beat Hartmann as well.  so ... if one of those guys takes out Mc on the other side of the bracket he has a shot.

I agree no reason to put Brody up there without matches.  But I make the same argument for Snyder and Stieber (I know I know Snyder has a hell of a pedigree and will be fine).  However try to hold everyone to the same level.