Author Topic: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out  (Read 3923 times)

Offline Thunderbird

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Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« on: March 06, 2017, 10:03:54 AM »
Curious to see how seeds shake out with 174-184-197.

174
Valencia #1
Realbuto #2
Jordan #3
Hall ???

184
Dean #1
Brooks #2
Nickal #3
Boyd #4
Zavatsky #5
Martin #6

197
Cox #1
Moore #2??
Pfarr #3
Haught #4


Offline ViseGrip

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2017, 03:10:35 PM »
184

Dean
Brooks
Martin
Nickel
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

Offline buck

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2017, 03:20:09 PM »
Dean v. Nickal in the semis would be criminal.
We are the storm.

Offline mspart

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2017, 03:43:31 PM »
Nickal couldn't even get into the finals of his conference.  Why should he not be paired up that way?  You lose, you can no longer dictate seeding.

mspart

Offline Jointdoc55

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2017, 04:54:53 PM »
It seems that people are starting solve Bo Nickal. Even so, he is still extremely talented and will place high in Nationals. I was at the Big 10 this year. After his match Bo Nickal walked around the coliseum a few times, seemingly in deep thought. My guess is that he will be ready.

Offline mspart

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2017, 05:32:14 PM »
Oh, I'm sure he will be ready.  But he should have been ready and wasn't. 

I have learned not to underestimate Penn St.  They are over performers at NCAA's. 

mspart

Offline brycemus

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2017, 05:35:50 PM »
125 is very interesting...Suriano will be an at-large & at-large selections are encouraged to not be given seeds.  but that means arguably the second best wrestler in the Country gets drawn in and that could cause absolute chaos.

Gilman is locked in at #1 so if Suriano is unseeded the Cruz, Dance, Lambert argument will be fun to see shake out.  I think Cruz would get the #2 very easily.
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Offline OkieSpladle

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2017, 05:41:18 PM »
184

Dean
Brooks
Martin
Nickel

Are we just going to pretend that Martin didn't lose to Dechow and Zavatsky?

Offline buck

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2017, 05:45:02 PM »
And Nickal.
We are the storm.

Offline OkieSpladle

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2017, 05:53:00 PM »
And Nickal.

That series is 1-1 this year so all else being equal, Martin would get the higher seed.  However, all else isn't equal.  Nickal has one loss and plenty of good wins including Brooks, Boyd, Dudley twice and, of course, the first Martin match.  You can't go straight head-to-head when Brooks, Martin, and Nickal are in an A beat B beat C beat A scenario.  Zero reason Martin should be seeded above Nickal.

Offline Thunderbird

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2017, 08:15:06 PM »
184

Dean
Brooks
Martin
Nickel

Are we just going to pretend that Martin didn't lose to Dechow and Zavatsky?

Are you going ignore the fact that Boyd hasn't beating anyone good this year?  According to wrestleStat his best win is against the 20th ranked guy.

Offline ViseGrip

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2017, 08:25:07 PM »
184

Dean
Brooks
Martin
Nickel

Are we just going to pretend that Martin didn't lose to Dechow and Zavatsky?
Either that or pretend Nickel beat him.
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all that want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics" -Thomas Sowell

Offline goStanford18

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2017, 10:08:02 PM »
Part 1 of my projected top 8 seeds:

125
1.   Thomas Gilman
2.   Darian Cruz
3.   Joey Dance
4.   Tim Lambert
5.   Ethan Lizak
6.   Josh Rodriguez
7.   Nick Piccininni
8.   Josh Rodriguez

Notable names missing: Nick Suriano (?), Josh Terao, Dylan Peters, Sean Fausz, Connor Youtsey

Rationale: Gilman is undefeated and rightfully sits atop. Cruz owns the H2H over Dance. Dance’s only blemish is Cruz. Lambert split with Lizak and placed higher at B1Gs. Rodriguez was tough to place since he lost to Piccininni at Big 12s, but only has 2 total losses in the season; Piccininni’s Big 12 Title should get him a seed. Not sure if Suriano gets seeded since he will be receiving an at-large bid. Injuries hurt the depth of this weight.

Most dangerous wrestler not seeded in the top 8: Connor Youtsey

133
1.   Nathan Tomasello
2.   Seth Gross
3.   Kaid Brock
4.   Dom Forys
5.   Cory Clark
6.   Stevan Micic
7.   Eric Montoya
8.   Zane Richards

Notable names missing: Earl Hall, Scott Parker, Mitch McKee, Connor Schram (?)

Rationale: NaTo walked out of B1Gs undefeated with back-to-back B1G titles. Gross is 2-0 against Brock. Brock beat Clark. Forys only has 1 loss in the season to Brock, and I think that helps him secure the 4 or 5 seed. Clark beat Micic, but has losses to NaTo and Brock. I think Micic’s B1G performance pushes him over Montoya and Richards. Montoya has the H2H over Richards and outplaced him at B1Gs. This weight is absolutely nails.

Most dangerous wrestler not seeded in the top 8: Mitch McKee

141
1.   Dean Heil
2.   Joey McKenna
3.   Kevin Jack
4.   Matt Kolodzik
5.   Anthony Ashnault.
6.   George DiCamillo
7.   Joey Ward
8.   Jaydin Eierman

Notable names missing: Bryce Meredith, Randy Cruz, Colton McCrystal, Luke Pletcher

Rationale: This 8 was pretty easy for me to sort. Heil continued  his winning ways at Big 12s. McKenna’s loss to Ward is “better” than Jack’s loss to Cruz. Kolodzik has only losses to McKenna and Jack. Ashnault obliterated B1Gs. DiCamillo owns Ward in H2Hs. Ward’s losses to DiCamillo probably slides him down to 7.  MAC title should push Eierman into the top 8 over returning NCAA finalist Meredith. 

Most dangerous wrestler not seeded in the top 8
: Bryce Meredith

149

1.   Zain Retherford
2.   Anthony Collica
3.   Lavion Mayes
4.   Micah Jordan
5.   Brandon Sorensen
6.   Solomon Chisko
7.   Max Thomsen
8.   Pat Lugo

Notable names missing: Justin Oliver

Rationale: The Zain Train is rollin’. Collica stands above the rest. This is where it gets interesting. Where Mayes and Jordan are seeded will serve huge implications in the team race. Mayes has the better wins; Jordan has the better losses—Mayes will probably receive the 3. But I do think Micah Jordan can be a NCAA finalist if he’s given the 3.  I’d also like to see Jordan get the 3 so the B1Gs Big 3 won’t be on the same side of the bracket and a Sorensen/Mayes semis (and potential Retherford/Mayes semis) is very intriguing. Sorensen somehow finds himself at 5 instead of the 2. 6-8 were a bit tricky to sort through for me. Chisko won the ACC title and coupled with only 3 losses, I think he gets the 6th seed. Thomsen has the H2H over Lugo and split with Oliver (but owns the most recent win @ MAC). Lugo has a win over Sorensen.

Most dangerous wrestler not seeded in the top 8: None, I’m quite confident the brackets will stay intact.

157
1.   Jason Nolf
2.   Michael Kemerer
3.   Joey LaVallee
4.   Tyler Berger
5.   Joe Smith

Notable names missing: Dylan Palacio, Jake Short, Billy Murphy, Josh Shields, Colin Heffernan, Russell Parsons

Rationale: Jason Nolf is arguably the most sure-fire NCAA Champ this year. Everyone at 157 will be wrestling him to not get bonused. Kemerer only has losses to Nolf, so he should be the 2. LaVallee’s heads into the Big Dance with a MAC title and 1 loss to Kutler—who didn’t weigh in at his conference tournament. 3 of Berger’s 4 losses are to Nolf/Kemmerer. Joe Smith only has losses to the top 3 guys + Kutler. The next 3 seeds give me a headache, so I’m not going to take a crack at them (e.g. Short has the best wins of the remaining wrestlers, but also owns the most losses—some are real headscratchers). This weight is also pretty much a foregone conclusion.

Most dangerous wrestler not seeded in the top 8: Probably Palacio or Murphy.


I'll post part 2 tomorrow.

P.S.: All #1 seeds are coming to the Big Dance with an unblemished record.


Offline RYou

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2017, 10:32:49 PM »
184

Dean
Brooks
Martin
Nickel

1) Dean  - undefeated
2) Nickal - beat Brooks though the fall was out of the ordinary, went 1-1 vs Martin this year (1 loss)
3) Brooks - lost to Nickal, was 1-1against Jackson beat Martin twice  (2 losses)
4) Zavatsky - lost to Dean and Macchiavello, beat Martin (2 losses)
5) Boyd - lost to Dean, Nickal and Brooks (3 losses)
6) Martin  - 2 losses to Brooks, 1-1 against Nickal this year, 2-6 vs Nickal career, lost to Zavatsky, Dean and Dechow, beat Dudley twice (6 losses)
7) Dudley - 2 losses to Martin and 2 losses to Nickal
8 or 9) Jackson - 1-1against  Brooks, lost to  Dudley twice, lost to Parker
8 or 9) Dechow  - lost to Dudley, beat Martin and Macchiavello, but no other quality wins


Offline Jointdoc55

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Re: Curious how NCAA Seeds shake out
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2017, 03:22:13 AM »
And Nickal.

That series is 1-1 this year so all else being equal, Martin would get the higher seed.  However, all else isn't equal.  Nickal has one loss and plenty of good wins including Brooks, Boyd, Dudley twice and, of course, the first Martin match.  You can't go straight head-to-head when Brooks, Martin, and Nickal are in an A beat B beat C beat A scenario.  Zero reason Martin should be seeded above Nickal.
Not "zero" reason. A win in the big ten finals has to carry some weight.