More on High School Participation Decline -- State Level Numbers

[ctc]

but it appears having more teams than the wrestling population can support in some areas is one of the problems here.

Not buying this.  If a person goes into a tiny Oklahoma town (or any tiny town for that matter - I know so many small towns in Oklahoma have excellent participation), they are not having an effect on a program somewhere else.  It is making wrestling available over a larger percentage of the country.  A program in Duncan is not detrimental to a program in Lawton.  (I am from Texas and am aware of the situation in Oklahoma.  In Texas, each high school that adds wrestling does not diminish from the next high school that already has wrestling.  Each high school is their own isolated "world" and growth or failure is contingent upon what happens within that high school.

[Jtm]

The graph is intended to show decrease in participation by state. The horizontal scale isn't relevant; it's log just to spread out the data.

Hard to say what this graphic shows when the scale is note proportional on the horizontal axis.

Recently, much written here and elsewhere about the participation decline in high school wrestling (boys).  Here's what the data looks like at the state level.










Original post.

[Jtm]

According to the NFHS data (boys only), Texas and Oklahoma ranked #1 and #2, respectively, in number of wrestlers added from 2010/11 to 2015/16.  In contrast, nine states experienced a participation decline of more than 14%.  Both Washington and Oregon participation declined by nearly 21% over the period.

but it appears having more teams than the wrestling population can support in some areas is one of the problems here.

Not buying this.  If a person goes into a tiny Oklahoma town (or any tiny town for that matter - I know so many small towns in Oklahoma have excellent participation), they are not having an effect on a program somewhere else.  It is making wrestling available over a larger percentage of the country.  A program in Duncan is not detrimental to a program in Lawton.  (I am from Texas and am aware of the situation in Oklahoma.  In Texas, each high school that adds wrestling does not diminish from the next high school that already has wrestling.  Each high school is their own isolated "world" and growth or failure is contingent upon what happens within that high school.

[Jtm]

Without reference to the NWCA, the NFHS data (boys only) shows sequential participation declines for six years starting in 2010/11. During that same period, overall sports participation is flat to slightly up, so wrestling is losing share according to the data.  Also, over the same period the average roster size declined from 26.3 in 2010/11 to 23.0 in 2016/17.  Whether any of this is statistically meaningful is beyond my pay grade.

https://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/sports/columnists/2018/01/16/heiser-participation-down-forfeits-up-high-school-wrestling-searches-solutions/1037804001/

"The National Wrestling Coaches Association reports that the average size of a high school wrestling roster has decreased from 37 to 23 in the last six years and that 29 percent of high school dual-meet matches now result in forfeits. In addition, high school boys’ participation in wrestling — which ranks seventh among high school sports — has dropped six straight years."

This is one of those insidiously wrong factoids that just won't die. The drop in roster size from 37 to 23 is from 1975 to today, not in the last six years (you can check yourself here (http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/ParticipationStatics.aspx/). Most of the loss in roster size had been due to a growing number of programs while the number of participants stayed mostly flat. For example, in 1971-72, there were 7587 HS wrestling teams with 265.039 wrestlers. By 2016-17, there were 10,629 HS wrestling teams for 244,804 athletes. We had 273,732 wrestlers in 2010-11 before the latest slide began, though it is difficult to tell if this is a serious issue or just a downcycle.  There are many up and downturns in the popularity of the sport throughout the data which clouds the issue. Certainly, there are changes that can be made to help, but it appears having more teams than the wrestling population can support in some areas is one of the problems here.

[Jtm]

Link to the NWCA survey regarding declining high school participation in wrestling. If you want to offer an opinion, here's a link to the survey.

[a guest]

Survey completed

[ViseGrip]

I do think it looks bad when a dual has 3 or more forfeits. I think we have too many HS weights. I also think it makes sense for some smaller school classifications to have fewer weight classes.